Hormuz, missiles, and Western blackmail: why Iran is acting according to the Russian scheme and what it means for Israel

On March 22, 2026, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Andrey Kovalenko, stated: Iran is increasingly acting according to the same logic as Russia. Not relying on a decisive military victory, but on strikes, chaos, pressure on allies, and an attempt to scare the West with a big war. For Israel, this is no longer foreign analysis, but a matter of its own security.

What exactly did Andrey Kovalenko state

On March 22, 2026, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Andrey Kovalenko, stated that Iran is trying to influence the international situation using methods very similar to Russia’s actions. It’s not just about missile launches and general aggressive rhetoric.

In his assessment, Tehran is primarily betting on political effect. Not so much on direct military results, but on pressure on Western countries and their allies. The logic here is simple, crude, and, to be honest, long familiar: create as much fear, instability, and nerves as possible so that politicians in Europe and the region themselves begin to pressure the US and Israel with demands to ‘stop the war.’

Kovalenko specifically emphasized that Iran, like Russia, works through the chaos of the space around it. Strikes, threats to Gulf monarchies, attempts to draw Europe into a wider crisis, playing around the Strait of Hormuz — all these, according to him, are elements of one scheme. Not to win quickly. Not to break the front with one blow. But to exhaust, frighten, raise the stakes, and force the opponent to concede politically.

This is an important emphasis. Because in such conflicts, many still automatically look for the main question in the plane of ‘who destroyed how much.’ And here, it seems, the calculation is different. Not on decisive military superiority, but on the fatigue of foreign societies.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important in this scheme

Kovalenko specifically linked the actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. And this is not a random detail.

Hormuz is not just a narrow sea passage on the map. It is one of the key routes of global energy and world trade. Any instability there instantly turns into an international problem. Risks for transportation increase, markets become nervous, insurance becomes more expensive, and pressure on governments of countries that do not want a large regional fire intensifies.

That is, the IRGC, if we take Kovalenko’s logic, plays not only with missiles. It plays with the nerves of the global system. And this is very similar to the Russian approach of recent years, where even a limited military effect is attempted to be turned into a large political wave — through fear, blackmail, and the feeling that things will only get worse.

Why Israel needs to read this not as a Ukrainian comment, but as a direct warning

For the Israeli audience, there is nothing abstract in this assessment. Israel does not live in theory. Here, they understand too well what pressure through the threat of escalation, through missiles, through proxies, through strikes on civilian infrastructure, and through constant attempts to make external players tell Jerusalem: stop, concede, just so that all this does not grow.

That is why Kovalenko’s words sound to Israel not as an external view from the side, but as a recognizable description of already familiar tactics. Tehran does not necessarily expect to deliver one crushing blow to Israel that will decide everything. Rather, the opposite. The calculation may be on prolonged nervous pressure, on international fatigue, on rising prices, on panic in transport corridors, on irritation in Europe and in the Gulf countries.

In this sense, Iran indeed acts according to Russia’s scheme. Moscow has also repeatedly tried to achieve a political effect where the military result did not provide the necessary breakthrough. Sabotage in Europe, drones, attacks on critical infrastructure, pressure through fear of further escalation — this entire model is built around one idea: if you cannot win quickly, you need to make the cost of resistance as unpleasant as possible for everyone around.

In the middle of this logic is what NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency constantly writes about: today’s war against Iranian aggression is no longer just a matter of one border or one front. It is a struggle with a model of blackmail, where chaos itself becomes a weapon.

How the Russian and Iranian models are especially similar

They are similar not only in aggression as such. Here, the mechanism is more important.

First, a threat is created, which in itself may be limited. Then this threat is greatly amplified in the media and politically. After this, pressure begins on external centers of power: if you do not stop your ally, the situation will get out of control. And then the main calculation goes into play — that more peaceful and more well-fed societies will tire sooner than the regime that has long lived in the logic of mobilization and violence.

Russia applied this against Ukraine and Europe. Iran applies this against Israel, regional countries, and, more broadly, against the West.

This is an unpleasant scheme, but it is understandable. And therefore dangerous.

Why Kovalenko’s conclusion is important even where his formulations can be disputed

Kovalenko is convinced that such a tactic will not work for either Moscow or Tehran. According to him, the current missile reserves allow for chaotic strikes but do not change the situation strategically. He believes that the IRGC has already lost this war in a broader sense, and the final defeat of this line will lead to the stabilization of the region.

With the last formulation, one can argue about the timing, the mechanics, the degree of optimism. The region is too complex to believe in simple resolutions. But in the main, his thought seems strong: neither Russia nor Iran offers the world any sustainable model other than the export of fear. And fear is a poor foundation for a long victory.

For Israel, the conclusion is harsh but sober. When Tehran strikes, threatens straits, destabilizes the region, and simultaneously hopes that Europe or the Arab monarchies will begin to pressure the US and Israel more strongly, this is not a set of unrelated episodes. This is a strategy. And it needs to be dismantled precisely as a strategy, not as an emotional reaction of the regime.

This is the meaning of today’s statement. Iran is trying to play the same game that Russia has long been playing: not to win honestly and quickly, but to make the world so nervous that someone flinches first.

So far, the main question is different. Will the West understand this in time — and will they not start accepting blackmail as diplomacy again.