Russia offers to strengthen Iran’s air defense: why the missile shortage already links the USA, Ukraine, and Israel

For one wave of the Iranian attack, the US could launch up to 160 modern Patriot interceptors costing up to $640 million. Meanwhile, Europe is searching for missiles for Ukraine, Greece is buying Israeli air defense systems, and Russia is offering to strengthen Iran’s defense.

If you look for how many Patriots the US has left after the war with Iran, how much the PAC-3 MSE costs, and why Ukraine is again short of missiles for these systems, all three questions now boil down to one problem: interceptors are being used up faster than they can be calmly replaced. Patriot is an American air defense and missile defense system, and the PAC-3 MSE is its modern hit-to-kill interceptor missile designed, among other things, to combat ballistic targets.

On the night of August 31, Iran attacked American targets in Jordan. The Hormuz Letter reports that US Army batteries launched between 96 and 160 PAC-3 MSE against 32–40 Iranian ballistic missiles — three to four interceptors per target. At an estimated price of about $4 million per missile, such expenditure means $384–640 million for one wave.

The midpoint of this estimate is 128 launches. This is especially noticeable against the backdrop of production: Lockheed Martin reported that it delivered a record 620 PAC-3 MSEs for the entire year of 2025. So, one such night, if we take the average estimate from The Hormuz Letter, corresponds to about 21% of the annual output for 2025. Here, money is already secondary: the factory cannot be forced overnight to return to the warehouse what the battery launched in minutes.

I, Anton Pshedynsky, have correlated these figures with what is currently happening around Ukraine, Greece, and Iran.

For NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency, this connection is important from an Israeli perspective: Israel lives in the same reality of massive ballistic attacks, but relies primarily on Arrow and David’s Sling, whereas the US and Ukraine are critically dependent on the Patriot family.

128 missiles — is it 15% of the American stockpile or not

In the July assessment by CSIS, the American stockpile of modern Patriot interceptors was approximately in the range of 759–827 units. If you simply divide 128 by these numbers, you get about 15.5–16.9%. This is where the scale estimate comes from: one such wave can take about a sixth of the stockpile that appears in the center’s calculations.

Here, a technical detail is important. The CSIS calculations include PAC-3 MSE and earlier PAC-3; up to about 400 older PAC-2s were accounted for separately by the center. Therefore, the figure of about 15% is more accurately read as an indicator of the order of expenditure relative to the CSIS-estimated modern Patriot stockpile: within it are different versions of the PAC-3.

This almost does not affect the essence of the problem. CSIS already wrote in July that the American Patriot stockpile had fallen below a thousand. Any new massive Iranian salvo now uses up the same limited class of munitions needed by American forces and allies.

Factories are ramping up production, but the war is moving faster

Lockheed Martin increased PAC-3 MSE production by more than 60% over two years and delivered 620 missiles in 2025. In January 2026, the company and the US government agreed to raise annual production capacity from about 600 to 2,000 interceptors, but reaching this level is expected only by the end of 2030.

On paper, this is a huge increase. In combat arithmetic, it looks different: 128 interceptors are about two and a half months of production at a rate of 620 missiles per year. Moreover, the factory does not work only for the American army. Other countries purchase PAC-3s, so a produced missile does not necessarily mean a missile that will be on an American warehouse or near a Ukrainian launcher tomorrow.

For Israel, this logic is familiar from its own massive attacks. At the moment of the raid, the cost of interception is measured not only in millions of dollars but also in the remaining ammunition for the next wave.

Ukraine is now looking for missiles from Spain and Greece

Against this backdrop, Bloomberg reported that NATO and the EU are increasing pressure on Spain and Greece to transfer additional Patriot interceptors to Ukraine. A scheme is being discussed in which Norway will buy missiles from Madrid and Athens and then transfer them to Kyiv. The negotiations also involve PAC-2 — an older modification of Patriot missiles; part of the European stockpiles is nearing the end of their service life.

The issue is to be discussed on September 1–2 at meetings of European ministers in Ireland. Spain and Greece still have significant European Patriot stockpiles. Greece previously resisted the transfer, explaining it as necessary to protect its own airspace amid chronic tensions with Turkey.

For the Israeli reader, it is important not to confuse Russian systems: Turkey has S-400s purchased from Russia, while Greece has S-300s. These are different complexes and different political stories.

Greece is simultaneously buying Israeli air defense

There is a detail that directly links the Ukrainian story with Israel. On August 31, Israel and Greece signed a defense agreement worth about $3.5 billion. It includes the creation of a multi-layered Greek air defense system based on Israeli David’s Sling, SPYDER, and BARAK MX, as well as radars and a control system.

This results in an unusual restructuring. Athens does not want to quickly weaken its own Patriots due to Turkey, allies demand to give Ukraine at least part of the interceptors, and Greece itself is simultaneously investing billions in a new Israeli air and missile defense architecture.

This does not mean that Israeli complexes will simply replace Patriots tomorrow and free up all Greek missiles. But in the medium term, the new system can change the balance, which is why Athens is so firmly holding onto American stockpiles.

Meanwhile, Russia offers to strengthen Iran’s air defense

Almost simultaneously with the new exchange of strikes between Iran and the US, Moscow publicly outlined how it is ready to further assist Tehran.

On September 1, 2026, the head of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Dmitry Shugaev, named air defense systems as the main direction of military cooperation between the two countries. According to him, this topic has been discussed for a long time; besides air defense, aviation equipment and other weapons remain on the agenda. Shugaev separately reminded about the Russian S-300s supplied to Iran and stated that they “have proven to be very effective.”

For Israel, this assessment looks at least controversial.

Back in April 2024, an Israeli strike disabled one of the four Russian S-300 batteries near Tehran, and after the operation on October 26, Netanyahu announced the destruction of the remaining three. In February 2026, the IDF again made Iranian air defense one of the primary targets: on the first day of a joint operation with the US, about 200 Israeli aircraft attacked more than 500 targets, including strategic air defense systems. The destruction and suppression of air defense allowed for greater freedom of action for Israeli aviation over Iran.

And Shugaev’s statement did not sound in a diplomatic vacuum.

On the same day, September 1, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Putin in Bishkek on the sidelines of the SCO summit. Putin declared Moscow’s solidarity with Iran and promised to maintain economic ties despite the war and sanctions. Pezeshkian thanked Russia for its position and spoke about the possibility of Moscow and Tehran together opposing American “unilateralism.”

I would therefore look at the discussion of Russian air defense not as ordinary export advertising. After a series of Israeli and American strikes, Iran has to restore its damaged air shield, and Tehran is seeking weapons not only from Russia: it was reported in the summer about the purchase of hundreds of Chinese portable air defense systems. Moscow now publicly offers to cover the most painful failure for Iran — the protection of the sky from the very Israeli and American aircraft that have already shown the ability to reach strategic targets deep inside the country.

What really connects these five stories

We are not looking at just one news story about an expensive Patriot salvo. The US is trying to simultaneously replenish its own stockpiles and defend bases in the Middle East; Ukraine is searching for every available missile; Greece is negotiating due to its own risks and simultaneously buying Israeli air defense; Iran is seeking reinforcement from Russia after strikes.

I would therefore not reduce this story only to the impressive $640 million. The main figure is the gap between the minutes it takes to launch dozens of interceptors and the years needed to expand production. It is this gap that now links the security of the US, Ukraine, Israel, and European allies.

Sources: The Hormuz Letter; Bloomberg; CSIS; Lockheed Martin; Reuters.