- November 27, 2024
- 5:56 pm
- Middle East
The Syrian militia has launched a large-scale offensive in Idlib province, west of the city of Aleppo. In a short time the rebels liberated seven settlementscausing a stir among Russian troops and the army of Bashar al-Assad.
According to an Israeli officer and military observer Yigal Levin November 27, 2024, events in Syria became a serious challenge for Moscow:
“The Syrian rebels (from the English rebels, rebels – ed.) decided to shake up the old days and began an offensive operation, liberating the first 7 settlements west of Aleppo from the hands of the Assad regime.”
“There are rumors that the rebels destroyed a detachment of Russian soldiers, judging by the captured trophies.”Levin added.
“Well, yes, there is no need to note that these events are good for both Ukraine and Israel, which, I think, there is no need to explain – this is obvious.”
Russian troops under attack
Amid the fighting, the militia displayed trophies, including weapons likely used by Russian soldiers.
The Russian army, which has been present in Syria for almost 10 years, is increasing airstrikes, and Assad's troops are heavily shelling rebel positions with artillery. However, the situation at the front remains tense.
The Syrian opposition faction (HTS, FSA/SNA) announced the mobilization of additional forces for a large-scale offensive and capture of the city of Aleppo.
First results of the offensive
Syrian rebels operating against the army of the Bashar al-Assad regime have launched a large-scale offensive near Aleppo. The next morning they were already in 7 kilometers from the western part of the cityliberating seven settlements.
Military commentator and officer in the Israel Defense Forces Yigal Levin noted that the operation was an unexpected blow for the Syrian army and its allies:
“Disorganization and panic in the ranks of the Syrian Arab Army have not yet passed. The first breakthrough was achieved with almost no losses, plus prisoners and trophies.”
Panic in the ranks of the army of Assad and Russia
The situation on the front near Aleppo is characterized by chaos. Russian and Syrian aircraft began to carry out indiscriminate attacks on rebel positions, but due to a lack of coordination, cases of the so-called “friendly fire”when the bombs hit their own troops.
Levin explains:
“During such chaos, friendly fire is more than the norm. Aviation is bombing everything, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they attacked their own.”
Why is Aleppo important?
The city of Aleppo is a key strategic point on the map of Syria. Its loss would be a serious blow to the Assad regime and its allies, including Russia.
Reasons for the strategic importance of Aleppo:
- Control over major transport hubs.
- Proximity to the front line with the province of Idlib, where opposition forces are concentrated.
- Economic importance as the industrial center of Syria.
The rebel offensive threatens Russia and Assad's plans to maintain control over northern Syria, and it only increases tensions.
Offensive without losses: key successes of the rebels
At the moment, the Syrian militias have achieved significant successes:
- Released seven settlements.
- Captured prisoners and weaponsincluding rare specimens, probably of Russian origin.
- Chaos has been created in the command of the Syrian army.
Yigal Levin emphasizes:
“The first results of the offensive indicate that the rebels are well prepared. They exploited defensive weaknesses left by the Assad regime.”
Table: Comparison of losses and successes of the parties
| Parameter | Syrian rebels | The army of the Assad regime and the Russian Federation |
|---|---|---|
| Liberated settlements | 7 | 0 |
| Losses in manpower | Minimum | Unknown, probably high |
| Captured trophies | Significant weapons | None |
| Panic | Absent | High level |
Prospects: what will happen next?
According to Levin, much depends on whether the rebels can consolidate their successes and continue the offensive:
“We'll see if the success continues by next morning. So far it looks like the Rebels are ready for larger scale operations.”
Why is this important for Israel?
- Syrian stability is key to Israel's security. Assad's weakness reduces Iranian influence in the region.
- Russia is losing its position. The Kremlin's focus on Ukraine is creating a power vacuum that could be used to strengthen the position of the West and Israel's allies.
- Changing the balance of power. The success of the rebels could mean a further collapse of the pro-Russian coalition in Syria.
Yigal Levin's opinion: Russia's strategic failure
Levin believes that what is happening in Syria is further proof of the Kremlin’s inability to cope with multiple conflicts at the same time:
The situation on the front in Syria continues to develop, and the successes of the rebels create new challenges for Russian policy in the region.
The situation described by the words “Putin has problems in Syria” is explained by a number of factors related to the military-political context of the region, as well as the weakness of the Russian strategy in a multifaceted conflict. This is why the Syrian offensive has become a problem for Russia:
1. Weakening of Russia’s position in Syria
Russia plays a key role in supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad, as its main ally. It provided Assad's army with:
- Military equipment,
- Air support,
- Financial and political assistance.
However, recent successes by Syrian militias advancing towards Aleppo indicate the diminishing effectiveness of this support. Russian troops involved in the fighting have suffered casualties, and reports of captured spoils (including weapons) suggest Russia is failing to maintain control.
“The militia are showing off trophies – very sophisticated weapons that the Russians were probably equipped with,” – notes military observer Yigal Levin.
2. Diversion of Russian resources to the war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine requires enormous human, military and financial resources from the Kremlin. This significantly weakened the Russian presence in Syria:
- The number of troops and equipment available to support Assad has been reduced.
- There are fewer opportunities for operational management of the conflict in Syria.
Levin emphasizes that Russia's lack of concentration in Syria creates strategic loopholes that the rebels exploit.
3. Panic and chaos in the ranks of Russia's allies
The sharp offensive of the Syrian militias caught not only Assad’s army by surprise, but also the Russian military, who are key players on this section of the front. The presence of cases of “friendly fire” indicates a lack of coordination.
“Aviation is bombing everything, I wouldn’t be surprised if they attacked their own people too,” – Levin emphasizes.
4. A symbolic defeat for the Kremlin
Russia has long positioned itself as a force capable of stabilizing the Middle East. But the rebels' successful offensive shows that the Kremlin is losing control of the situation.
“The Syrian rebels decided to shake up the old days and carried out an operation that undermines trust in Russia as a strategic partner,” – Levin noted.
5. Growing influence of the opposition
Militia victories, even local ones, strengthen their position on the international stage and show the world that Assad and his allies are weak. This may lead to:
- New sanctions or increased pressure on Russia,
- Increased support for the opposition from Western countries.
The Syrian offensive demonstrates structural problems in the Kremlin's strategy and also highlights Russia's growing inability to effectively fight multifaceted conflicts.
Our website NAnewst on Israel's security and international relations.
“Russia is now trying to hold on to two fronts – in Ukraine and Syria. This is a failure of strategic planning that will cost Moscow dearly.”
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