The defeat of the Republicans in the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, put Donald Trump in an unusual position. The Democrats gained a majority in both houses of Congress, winning even in traditionally Republican states — Texas, South Carolina, and Kansas. However, the president retained the authority to lead foreign policy and the armed forces. And now the question arises: will he become more cautious or, on the contrary, try to achieve military and diplomatic results before Congress increases its control?
Author: Stas Shifer | NAnews
The U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran, which began on February 28, was one of the reasons for the Republicans’ defeat. Rising fuel prices hit American families. Trump acknowledged the war’s impact on the elections but stated that he would again decide to attack Iran.
Vice President J.D. Vance spoke more harshly: in his opinion, it was the war that undermined Republican support. For Israel, this is a worrying signal. Disagreements over military cooperation with Jerusalem now exist not only between the two American parties but also within the Republican camp.
Israel: aid that has not yet been canceled
On November 3, Trump told Reuters that he had agreed with Benjamin Netanyahu to end annual U.S. aid to Israel after 2026.
This involves $3.8 billion (about 12.1 billion shekels): $3.3 billion is allocated for military funding, and another $500 million for joint missile defense programs. Trump promised to maintain sales of American weapons to Israel.
However, the current agreement is valid until September 2028. It provides for annual funding by Congress, and Trump did not explain how he intends to terminate the funding early. Netanyahu’s office did not confirm the agreement announced by the president to the agency.
Therefore, the aid cannot yet be considered canceled. But the political significance of the statement cannot be ignored. According to a June Quinnipiac University poll, 48% of American voters considered support for Israel excessive. Among Democrats, this was 66%.
In Israel, the situation is complicated by its own governmental crisis. After the October 27 elections, Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority.
On November 5, President Isaac Herzog announced that 67 deputies recommended entrusting the formation of the government to Gadi Eisenkot, and 46 to Netanyahu. But recommendations do not yet mean the existence of a coalition: serious disagreements remain between the parties. A decision on granting the mandate is expected on November 8.
The next government will have to build relations not only with the White House but also with the American Congress, where support for Israel is no longer guaranteed by the previous bipartisan consensus.
Iran: negotiations are ongoing simultaneously with strikes
On November 6, American forces launched a limited strike on the Iranian air defense system on Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump confirmed the operation, calling it insignificant.
Simultaneously, according to Associated Press, Qatar is offering the U.S. and Iran a two-stage compromise. First, Washington lifts the naval blockade and unfreezes part of Iran’s funds, and Tehran allows IAEA inspectors to the affected nuclear sites. Then shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, and broader negotiations begin.
The key issue is Iran’s uranium stockpiles. According to the IAEA, this involves 440.9 kilograms of material enriched to 60%.
But these are still mediator proposals, not an achieved agreement. Iran demands concessions before full-fledged negotiations begin. Trump, in turn, retains the possibility of intensifying strikes, hoping to achieve more favorable conditions.
For Israel, the consequences of the breakdown of negotiations are quite concrete: new missile attacks, the need to expend costly interceptors, and the risk of expanding the regional conflict.
Ukraine: the Democrats’ victory will not deliver missiles tomorrow
The Ukrainian leadership hopes that the new Congress will renew support for Kyiv, which has significantly decreased after Trump’s return to the White House.
On November 6, Reuters reported that Democrats intend to include funding for Ukraine and tougher sanctions against Russia in defense and budget bills.
Zelensky is seeking the provision of about $16 billion in previously promised aid (approximately 51.1 billion shekels). A separate issue is the Patriot missiles. Washington approved the sale of 500 PAC-3 interceptors worth $2.1 billion (about 6.7 billion shekels), but deliveries are expected only in the early 2030s. Ukrainian cities need protection already this winter.
An additional risk is associated with Moscow’s attempts to use the Iranian conflict to gain concessions on Ukraine. Earlier, NAnews analyzed proposals for Russian mediation in negotiations with Tehran. There is no confirmation of Washington’s agreement to such an exchange yet.
The new Congress will begin work only on January 3, 2027. Even after that, Trump retains the right to veto, which can be overcome by two-thirds of the votes in both houses. Therefore, the Democrats’ victory opens a political opportunity for Ukraine but does not guarantee the immediate resumption of supplies.
What Israel and Ukraine must consider
The election defeat did not deprive Trump of the ability to make military decisions. Moreover, an attempt to demonstrate strength abroad may become a way for him to compensate for weakening domestically.
For Israel, it is dangerous to rely on good personal relations with the American president to replace stable support from both parties. Military aid, arms supplies, and political protection at the international level require a more solid foundation.
Ukraine faces a different task: to turn the new Congress’s promises into real decisions without losing the time needed for the defense of cities.
Washington remains Israel’s main ally and Ukraine’s most important partner. But both countries now have to consider American domestic politics as an independent factor in their security.
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