The collapse of Russia's imperial ambitions in Syria – ISW: Putin has miscalculated and is looking for ways to support Assad – will Moscow and Tehran help the Syrian regime?

Until recently, Russia confidently played the role of guarantor of the Bashar al-Assad regime, but the war against Ukraine forced Moscow to reconsider its priorities. Instead of proclaiming “friendship of peoples” and “saving Syrian sovereignty,” the Kremlin hastily withdrew key military assets, including S-300 systems, to make up for losses on the Ukrainian front.

As analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write, “The Kremlin is no longer able to maintain the same level of involvement in Syria due to depleted resources and priorities in Ukraine.”.

Assad is looking for new patrons

Against the backdrop of weakening Russian support, the Assad regime is forced to look for new allies. Damascus now relies almost entirely on Tehran.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Damascus with a solemn statement:

“Iran strongly supports the Syrian government and army.”

However, despite the big words, Tehran faces its own problems. Economic sanctions, domestic protests and competition for influence in the Middle East limit Iran's ability to support the Assad regime.

How did the withdrawal of Russian forces turn out?

When Russia began to export weapons and military equipment from Syria, it became a signal of weakening. Today:

1. There is virtually no Russian aviation in Syria — all the main resources are directed towards the war against Ukraine.
2. S-300 systems are already in use on the Ukrainian frontwhich left Damascus without key air protection.
3. The Kremlin's propaganda is collapsing: Statements about the alleged destruction of “300 terrorists” in Aleppo evoke only sarcastic smiles, given the reputation of Russian official data.

Behind Iran is only the shadow of Russia

Iranian assistance remains limited. Even ISW ​​doubts that Tehran can fill the void left by Moscow.

Syrian opposition forces, meanwhile, are taking advantage of weakening control over the territory.

Impact on Israel

For Israel, changes in Syria provide new opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, weakening Hezbollah and the “axis of resistance” is beneficial for national security. On the other hand, Iran remains an unpredictable player.

NAnews – Israel News emphasize:

“Israel continues to closely monitor Iranian arms shipments through Syria and Lebanon, nipping potential threats in the bud.”

Regular Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah's warehouses and supply lines in Syria prove its determination to protect its interests.

Why can't the Kremlin cope anymore?

Moscow found itself in a strategic impasse. By sending its last resources to Ukraine, the Kremlin cannot afford to fully participate in the Syrian conflict.

Even Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, is forced to admit that Russia’s priority remains “restoring constitutional order in Syria”—a standard phrase that means nothing more.

Meanwhile, the Syrian opposition continues to strike at weakened government forces, demonstrating that the days of Assad's complete control over the country are a thing of the past.

Prospects for the Assad regime

Bashar al-Assad will face even greater challenges in the coming months:

1. Lack of finance: Russia and Iran can no longer provide such generous loans.
2. Lack of military power: The Syrian army suffers from a lack of modern technology and military equipment.
3. International isolation: Attempts to improve relations with Arab countries remain unsuccessful.

As noted NAnewsa’s geopolitical ambitions are crumbling under the pressure of reality.”

Conclusion

Russia withdraws from Syria, leaving Bashar al-Assad in the hands of Iran. However, even Tehran is not able to compensate for the level of support that Moscow provided until 2022.

For Israel, this opens up new opportunities for strengthening security, but requires increased vigilance over Iran's actions.

“The Kremlin’s imperial ambitions continue to come apart at the seams, and the Syrian crisis only confirms this.”,” ISW analysts summarize.

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