- September 29, 2024
- 1:18 pm
- Middle East
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said at a meeting of the UN General Assembly that Tehran is ready to end the nuclear confrontation with the West and called for stopping the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East “through dialogue.”
Iran, being in conditions of internal economic and political instability, is trying to use the strategy of the diplomatic game, offering the West a “dialogue on reconciliation.” However, experts such as the director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Igor Semivolos, believe that behind this peaceful rhetoric lies Tehran's deeper and more dangerous plans.
The point of such diplomacy may be to buy time to prepare for future conflicts, particularly with Israel. Currently, Iran is weakened by sanctions and internal economic problems, which limits its ability to pursue aggressive policies.
However, Tehran is seeking to strengthen its forces and gain support from other players in the arena, such as Russia. It is assumed that Iran can hope for guarantees from Moscow in the event of an escalation of the conflict with Israel, especially if the United States intervenes in the situation.
On September 28, 2024, Iran formally asked the UN Security Council to convene a meeting on Israeli actions in Lebanon and the region. This appeal is associated with the liquidation of the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah, which was a serious blow to the pro-Russian and pro-Iranian forces in the Middle East. Tehran used this moment to increase international pressure on Israel, arguing that such actions pose a threat to stability in the region and could provoke further escalation.
Iran's Ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeed Iravani, addressed Council members with a warning that Iran will not tolerate aggression against its diplomatic and national interests, and expressed its readiness to use all possible measures to protect the country.
Against this background, Russia, a traditional ally of Iran, is also increasing its rhetoric and activities in the region. After Nasrallah's assassination, Moscow took an even tougher stance towards Israel. The Russian leadership uses such incidents to strengthen its position in the Middle East, supporting forces opposing Israel and its Western allies. This is reflected in the supplies of weapons such as ballistic missiles, drones and other systems that Iran is transferring to Russia to wage war against Ukraine. In turn, Russia can provide Iran with technology and military systems that will help Tehran in the event of a direct conflict with Israel.
According to Reuters, Iran, despite official statements about its neutrality, already in early September transferred Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia, which can be used in combat operations in Ukraine. Although the delivery was incomplete and the launchers were missing, these actions clearly show the close military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. It is expected that Russia will continue to support Iran in the future, which poses a serious threat to Israel and all geopolitical stability in the region.
Against this background, Iran is trying to pretend that it is ready for dialogue with the West and that its rhetoric is peaceful. However, this, according to experts, is only a cover for the accumulation of forces and preparation for possible aggressive actions. The economic situation in Iran is deteriorating, with inflation reaching 40%, and the fall of the national currency, the rial, is putting additional pressure on the poor, creating internal tension. In such conditions, Tehran is seeking support from Russia in order to be ready for new challenges. Iran is likely counting on Russia to act as a guarantor of its security in the event of an escalation of the conflict with Israel.
Thus, the game between Iran and Russia in the international arena is becoming more and more obvious. Tehran is offering peaceful dialogue, but this is only a temporary measure. In reality, Iran and Russia continue to prepare for future confrontations. Semivolos emphasizes that the current change in the rhetoric of the Iranian leadership may be due to the fact that the country is temporarily not ready for aggressive actions, but this does not mean that it has abandoned its plans. In his opinion, Iran is preparing the ground for receiving stronger support from Russia, and this is especially important if the United States intervenes in the conflict.
At the same time, Russia continues its aggressive policy not only in Ukraine, but also in the Middle East. At a time when Western sanctions are putting pressure on Iran, Moscow is becoming an important partner for Tehran, which can provide not only military assistance, but also diplomatic cover in the international arena. Thus, we can expect further strengthening of interaction between Russia and Iran, especially when it comes to confrontation with Israel and the West.
This scenario looks extremely dangerous for stability in the region. Iran, using Russia as its protector and partner, may decide to carry out new provocations against Israel, which will inevitably lead to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
