- March 2, 2026
- 2:22 pm
- World News
The situation around Iran is rapidly approaching a point that could change the political map of the Middle East. After the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the country found itself simultaneously in a state of internal crisis, military pressure, and a power struggle within the system itself.
According to analysts, the next two days may determine whether Iran will move towards a political transition or the region will face a new phase of escalation, including the threat of nuclear blackmail.
Control of the skies and destruction of Iran’s military infrastructure
The military situation is developing not in favor of Tehran
According to Middle East experts, US and Israeli aviation have effectively gained operational dominance in Iranian airspace. The strikes are primarily aimed at systematically destroying the country’s defense potential — command centers, the infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and military management facilities.
The military balance increasingly resembles a one-sided pressure operation rather than a classic war between two equal sides.
Analyst Igor Semivolos notes that after Khamenei’s death, a dangerous fragmentation of governance began within the regime. According to him, information disseminated through IRGC channels about the possible lifting of the religious ban on nuclear weapons looks like an attempt at last strategic pressure on the international coalition.
Such signals are seen as an element of nuclear blackmail amid a rapid loss of control.
It is at this moment that the international agenda, which is constantly analyzed by NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency, shows a broader process: the crisis in Iran goes far beyond a regional conflict and directly affects the security of Europe, Israel, and global energy markets.
Split within the security forces and protests in the streets
The army and the IRGC found themselves on opposite sides for the first time
One of the most alarming factors has been the possible confrontation between Iran’s regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — structures that have acted as a single mechanism of power for decades.
According to incoming signals, some army units refused to participate in suppressing protests and to transfer air defense resources to the radical wing of the regime.
Reports indicate local clashes in Tehran, including areas of the government quarter. Army generals, according to analysts, are beginning to distance themselves from orders that are already being called ‘suicidal’ within the country.
After confirmation of Khamenei’s death, protests intensified sharply. Mass demonstrations are taking place in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz, where there are direct demands for the dismantling of the Islamic Republic.
Additional concern was caused by reports of the transfer of political prisoners from well-known prisons to strategic facilities — presumably to use them as human shields.
International reaction and the Russia factor
The geopolitical balance is rapidly changing
Arab states of the Persian Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, managed to intercept part of the missile attacks and have taken a position of effectively neutralizing the Iranian threat.
European leaders — the UK, France, and Germany — simultaneously declared their support for the Iranian society’s right to independently determine the country’s political future, which is perceived by diplomats as a signal of a possible transitional period of power.
Analysts pay special attention to Moscow’s reaction. Russia, despite allied relations with Tehran, has not actually intervened in what is happening. According to experts, this signal is being closely monitored in both Beijing and Pyongyang — as an indicator of the Kremlin’s weakened ability to influence crises beyond its own war against Ukraine.
China, on the contrary, is increasing its diplomatic involvement, primarily around the security of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already reduced panic fluctuations in oil markets.
Decisive 48 hours: surrender or new escalation
Experts describe the current situation in Tehran as a state of dual power. On one side — paralyzed transitional management structures, on the other — radical elements of the IRGC ready to escalate further.
According to analysts, the next 48 hours will show whether the regime can maintain control or the country will move to a phase of political collapse.
US President Donald Trump stated that the military operation could continue for about four weeks and is developing more effectively than initial expectations. At the same time, Washington does not rule out a negotiation scenario, although it believes Tehran missed the opportunity to start a dialogue earlier.
Iranian authorities, in turn, publicly reject any negotiations with the US.
Thus, Iran finds itself at a moment of historical choice: either the beginning of a transformation of the power system or an attempt to hold on through further escalation, the consequences of which could determine the region’s security for years to come.