"Why Ukraine is Winning the War": Yuval Noah Harari in FT and What Lesson for Israel

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“Russia failed to achieve its main goal — the destruction of the Ukrainian nation“, – in his column on September 27, 2025, for Financial Times Yuval Noah Harari reminds of a simple but often forgotten definition: war is the continuation of politics, and it is won not by those who capture more kilometers, but by those who achieve political goals. In this dimension, the historian argues, Ukraine is “already winning”: Moscow failed to destroy the Ukrainian nation and impose capitulation. On the contrary, national identity has strengthened and become irreversible.

Battlefield facts supporting the thesis

1) Disruption of the “blitzkrieg” and failure of Russia’s strategic goals

Russia’s initial advantage in February 2022 did not convert into the fall of Kyiv. Ukraine held on and then conducted counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and right-bank Kherson directions. Since mid-2022, the Kremlin’s bet on an “inevitable” strategic breakthrough has not worked.

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2) Sea and air: Ukrainian innovations against numerical superiority

Ukraine deprived Russia of its monopoly in the Black Sea — from “Moscow” to systematic strikes by sea and air drones on bases and ships: the Russian fleet has been pushed back, logistics have become complicated. In the air, Russia has not achieved dominance; Ukrainian long-range strikes on airfields and infrastructure inside Russia have become a regular part of the war. This happened with limited NATO involvement (without troop deployment and amid prolonged debates on heavy weaponry).

3) Where the weak link lies

According to Harari, the vulnerability is not at the front, but “in the minds of Ukraine’s Western friends,” where Russian propaganda strikes, instilling a sense of “fatigue” and “inevitability” of Russia’s victory. If the West surrenders psychologically, it will undermine the resource base of Ukraine’s defense — and will be a loss not only for Kyiv but also for NATO.

Why this conversation is important right now

The FT column was published against the backdrop of prolonged political debates about aid packages and the “cost of supporting” Ukraine.

In this context, the argument “who is really already achieving political goals” sounds not like journalism, but as a criterion for decision-making. For Europeans and Israelis, this is not an abstraction: the stability of Ukraine depends on the security architecture of Eastern Europe and the dynamics of the Middle Eastern triangle “Moscow—Tehran—their proxies.”

Lessons for Israel: what to learn from the Ukrainian experience

"Why Ukraine is winning the war": Yuval Noah Harari in FT and what lesson for Israel — “Why Ukraine is winning the war”: Yuval Noah Harari in FT and what lesson for Israel

Technological asymmetry as a system, not a set of “gadgets”

The Ukrainian “swarm” approach to UAVs in the air and at sea is not just “cheap drones,” but a constructor: intelligence → production → iterations of software and body solutions → tactics of use in conjunction with EW and artillery. For Israel, which has strong points in drones and air defense, it is useful to closely watch the speed of Ukrainian iterations and the civil-military R&D connection.

Logistics against superiority

Ukrainian strikes on refineries, airfields, and logistics have shown: even with a modest aviation fleet, it is possible to “reshape” the economic and military rear of the enemy. For Israel, which already lives in the paradigm of “multi-domain” warfare with Iran’s proxy network, this confirms the value of long-range precision and hybrid operations on enemy communications.

Psychological resilience of alliances

Russia tries to demoralize Western societies — just as Iran and its proxies pressure Israeli society through information operations, hostages, rocket terror, and economic costs. Conclusion: communication of war goals and honest explanation of the “cost of time” are as important as hardware.

Where to argue with Harari — and what to add

The column is the author’s position, not a report from an analytical center. Several counterarguments that are voiced in the expert community, and how to correlate them with the logic of FT:

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“On the ground, Ukraine is losing momentum, so it’s too early to talk about victory.” Harari writes not about the military “final summary,” but about the political result at this point: the failure of the plan to erase Ukrainian subjectivity. This does not negate the heavy price of the front, mobilization challenges, and dependence on supplies.
“Russia’s economy has adapted; the resource base is larger.” Yes, but the political goal — the collapse of Ukrainian statehood — remained unattainable even with this base. Ukraine’s asymmetric tools reduce the cost of Russian superiority.
“The West is tired.” And that is why the emphasis on “political victory already now” is important for maintaining the support consensus: it answers the question “why,” not just “how much it costs.”

What this changes for Europe

Turnaround of decisions. The shorter the cycle “threat → decision → supply → mastery,” the harder it is for the enemy to sell the narrative of “fatigue” and “uselessness of help.”
Localization of production and compatibility. European defense should quickly translate support into long-term contracts and standardized compatibility (with ammunition, air defense, UAVs). This reduces vulnerability to changes in political winds.
Goal setting: “what do we want as an outcome.” If the goal is to prevent the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, then the metrics of success are the functionality of the economy, energy system, air defense over major cities, export logistics. This is pragmatic and verifiable.

Israeli perspective: practical benefits from the “Ukrainian lesson”

Comprehensive rear defense. The vulnerability of Ukraine’s energy sector under Russian strikes is a reminder to us: distribution, reservation, and mobile solutions (from mobile generators to mobile air defense systems) are not an “option for extreme cases,” but a norm.
Speed of prototyping. The Ukrainian approach “today — MVP, tomorrow — series” in drones should be considered as a methodology for Israeli dual-purpose startups.
Information hygiene. Just as the Kremlin strikes at the “minds of Ukraine’s allies,” Iran’s proxy ecosystem strikes at Israeli public trust. Conclusion — build resilience not only with hardware but also with clear, unvarnished communication of risks and goals.

Summary of FT theses in one paragraph

Russia did not achieve its main goal — to destroy the Ukrainian nation; Ukraine held the capital, regained territories, broke Russia’s superiority at sea, delivered a series of long-range strikes on the enemy’s rear, and maintained initiative through innovations — with limited NATO involvement. The main risk is not on the ground, but in the erosion of allies’ will under Russian propaganda pressure. Therefore, Europe’s and partners’ bet is on long-term and rhythmic support, turning Ukrainian resilience into an institutional advantage.

It is important to understand the limitations

This picture does not mean “a victory parade tomorrow.” Ukraine’s life is daily strikes on energy, losses at the front, mobilization and production challenges. But even under these conditions, the political outcome — the preservation and strengthening of Ukrainian subjectivity — has already occurred, making the war equation for Moscow much more complicated.

Source and context

Primary source: Yuval Noah Harari’s column in Financial Times on September 27, 2025, “Why Ukraine is winning the war“. Additionally, the topic was retold by regional media, but we rely on the original.

from NANews

Ukraine is not just “holding on” — it has thwarted the Kremlin’s main goal and built asymmetric mechanisms that make Russian superiority expensive and ineffective.

For Israel, the lesson is twofold: the speed of technological iterations and the resilience of society to long-term war are as much a weapon as air defense systems or drones. And for Europe — the choice between “fatigue” and a strategy where victory is measured not by the front line in a week, but by the survival and freedom of an allied nation.

Who is Yuval Noah Harari

Israeli historian and publicist, professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; author of global bestsellers “Sapiens,” “Homo Deus,” and “21 Lessons for the 21st Century”. Born in 1976 in Israel, he earned a PhD at Oxford (2002); his academic interests include “big history,” the connection between biology and history, and the ethics of technology.

After the success of his books, Harari, together with his husband and manager Itzik Yahav, founded the educational project Sapienship, working at the intersection of science, culture, and public policy.

In 2024–2025, he presented a new book “Nexus” about information networks — from antiquity to AI; simultaneously, he speaks in the media with warnings about the risks of misinformation and the need for democratic regulation of technology.