- November 13, 2024
- 2:26 pm
- Middle East
In an attempt to prevent Hezbollah from arming itself, Israel, as the media wrote, turned to Russia, hoping for its “support in the fight against smuggling.” However, Moscow unexpectedly (?) rejected the request, citing “the limitations of its mandate in Syria.” Details are in the article from NAnovosti.
Russia “dumped” Israel with promises on Hezbollah: diplomacy mixed with interests
The visit of Russian representatives to Lebanon and the discussion of the conflict involving Hezbollah dotted the i’s in relations between Moscow and Israel. Israel, which was counting on Russia's help in controlling the arms of the Shiite group, received a turnaround. It turned out that Moscow is not only unable, but also does not intend to control the border between Syria and Lebanon, where weapons for Hezbollah are flowing in a stream.
Russian refusal: contrived powerlessness or political calculation?
The special representative of the Russian President for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, made a statement that leaves no room for doubt: “It is impossible to fulfill such a request, since it would require the installation of new checkpoints on the border, which goes beyond the mandate of the Russian military.”. The statement is more than transparent – Moscow directly states that control over the Syrian-Lebanese border is not in its interests, and Israel should not hope for assistance in this matter.
“I don’t know who in the Israeli government came up with the brilliant idea of making Russia the guarantor of Hezbollah’s unarmed state, but even in Moscow they said that they were “not able” to ensure this.”
It was expected that Russia would “meet Israel halfway,” thereby realizing its own interests in the region. However, such expectations turned out to be unjustified: even in those rare cases when Moscow is ready to listen to requests, its obligations to its allies – Iran and Syria – still turn out to be more important.
Support for Hezbollah as a consequence of relations with Iran
Relations between Russia and Iran are a key factor determining Moscow’s position in the region. Moscow seeks to maintain a stable partnership with Tehran, which helps it not only control part of Syrian territory, but also participate in the Syrian conflict on favorable terms. In the current situation, giving up arms control to Hezbollah becomes a logical continuation of this strategic line. Supporting Hezbollah strengthens Iran's position and allows Russia to continue its “operation” in Syria.
“Russia can bomb peaceful Syrian cities within the framework of its mandate, but, alas, it is not in its power to ensure that Hezbollah does not arm itself with missiles. Iran probably wouldn't approve.”
Airstrike near Khmeimim base: indicator of tensions
In October, Israel carried out an airstrike on a facility in close proximity to the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria, prompting a strong reaction from Moscow. Lavrentiev warned Israel about the “inadmissibility of such actions” and emphasized that they could threaten the lives of Russian military personnel, which is “inadmissible from the point of view of the Russian side.” Moscow hopes that “such incidents will not be repeated,” since “any such incident threatens the already precarious balance of interests in the region.”
In addition, he called reports that the Russian Federation is providing the aforementioned base to supply Iranian weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon as “rumors.”
| Event | Russia's reaction |
|---|---|
| Request to control smuggling for Hezbollah | Complete refusal, references to mandate limitations |
| Israeli airstrike near Khmeimim base | Threat warning for Russian military |
| Possibility of a break over politics with Iran | Leaving unchanged due to the risks of deteriorating relations |
Unanswered Questions: What are Russia's Real Motives?
Moscow appears to be seeking to avoid a direct conflict of interest between Israel and Iran, preferring not to interfere and maintaining its freedom of action in Syria. Russian diplomacy takes advantage of Israel's need for its mediation role, while at the same time limiting its obligations to it. At the same time, questions remain: is Russia ready for a real settlement if it requires a revision of its relations with Tehran?
The disappointment of the Israeli government is obvious, but it is unlikely to influence the decision of Moscow, which understands that its key ally in Syria is not Israel, but Iran. NAnews is monitoring developments and will continue to analyze what impact this will have on the balance of power in the Middle East.
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