Zelensky called on Ukrainians abroad to “come back and help” – Demographic situation in Ukraine and forecasts

Since the start of the full-scale aggression, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes to escape the threat of shelling. As of August 2024, almost 4.2 million Ukrainians received temporary protection status in the European Union.

President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky called on Ukrainians abroad to return and help. He assured that the state will not put pressure on citizens who went abroad after the start of a full-scale war to return.

Zelensky about this spoke in an interview with media representatives from the Nordic countries on October 30, 2024.

He added that all Ukrainians faced different situations. Many citizens had serious reasons for traveling abroad. We are talking, in particular, about pensioners, children, families of fallen military personnel and other categories.

The main countries that accepted Ukrainians:

1. Germany – more than 1.01 million people (27% of the total in the EU).
2. Poland – about 975 thousand (23.4%).
3. Czech Republic – almost 377 thousand people (9%).

Zelensky's opinion on the return of Ukrainians

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky spoke about the situation with Ukrainians abroad, calling on them to return and help rebuild the country. According to him, the government will not put pressure on those who left, since everyone had their own reasons for leaving.

“All Ukrainians had different situations, and the state respects this. Many left for serious reasons – pensioners, families of fallen military personnel and other categories,” Zelensky noted.

Against the backdrop of the mass flight of millions of Ukrainians abroad to escape shelling, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky discussed the fate of these people and the possibility of their return. He emphasized that he could not put pressure on those who left, since many of them lost their homes and are now in difficult conditions.

Zelensky noted that among those who remained in Ukraine there are families with children who continue to live in dangerous conditions, and he respects their courage. He admitted that the war created many reasons for leaving and cannot force people to return, since everyone has their own situation. The President expressed condolences to those whose loved ones died in the fight against Russian aggression, emphasizing the importance of supporting all Ukrainians, regardless of their place of residence.

Demographic situation in Ukraine and forecasts

As of 2021, the population of Ukraine was about 41 million. By 2024, the population had dropped to more than 35 million. Demographer Alexander Gladun identifies three main reasons: the outflow of refugees, a drop in the birth rate and death at the front.

“Since the beginning of the war, the population has decreased by a quarter. It is important to take into account the assessment date and territorial scope,” Gladun emphasized.

Errors and possible solutions

Demographers point to the need for a population census and improved accounting methods. At the moment, Ukraine is facing an unprecedented population decline, and the demographic situation requires effective solutions to stabilize it.

Errors that require attention:

• Insufficient system for recording and updating data.
• Lack of population census since 2001.
• Insufficient attention to demographic policy in the pre-war years.

Possible steps:

1. Conducting an up-to-date census for accurate data.
2. Programs for the return of Ukrainians.
3. Fertility support and assistance to families.

The future of Ukraine: hopes for return and restoration

Ukraine is currently going through a period of heavy losses, but the government hopes for the return of citizens and development.

General state of affairs

According to recent surveys, the number of Ukrainians wishing to return home after the end of the war is gradually decreasing. This is especially true for young people: almost a third of students from different regions of Ukraine plan to continue their studies abroad.

Migration sentiment among men

With the end of the war, it is expected that many men may also leave the country to reunite with families who have already adjusted abroad. This process reflects the aggravation of emotional and social tensions resulting from the war.

Difficulties of the population census

Doctor of Economic Sciences Alexander Gladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems, noted that a population census in the current conditions is practically impossible. He emphasizes that the difficulties are related to security in regions under threat of shelling and methodological aspects.

“The census cannot be organized due to insecurity, and the methodology takes time to analyze the return of migrants,” Gladun said.

Demographic replacement in Mariupol

Gladun also gave the example of Mariupol, where, according to his estimates, there are now more Russian citizens than Ukrainians. This indicates an active demographic policy pursued by Russia, aimed at changing the composition of the population.

Analogy with Ireland

The expert gave an analogy with Ireland, where the massive outflow of population in the 19th century was also caused by the critical situation in the country. There are now over 5 million people living in Ireland, while over 70 million have Irish ancestry abroad.

Motivations for migration

Gladun pointed out the need to study the motivations of those who left: this may be due to economic factors, corruption and lack of opportunities in Ukraine.

“We need to find out what prevents people from realizing themselves in the country. Corruption and nepotism are some of the reasons,” he added.

Ukraine's demographic development strategy

The Cabinet of Ministers recently approved a demographic development strategy until 2040, but Gladun does not consider it effective for increasing the population. He emphasizes that population placement strategies and social infrastructure development are important aspects that need to be taken into account to solve demographic problems.

Key aspects of the strategy:

• The need to create jobs and social infrastructure.
• Simplification of migration processes.
• Assessment of factors influencing fertility and life expectancy.

Fertility debate

Alexander Gladun, Doctor of Economics, emphasizes that the solution to the demographic problem must begin with increasing the birth rate. He points to the need to create a new government body – the Ministry of Demography and Migration, although he believes that the effectiveness of such measures is doubtful.

European labor needs

Europe is interested in Ukrainians staying put. Eurostat data shows that only 6% of Ukrainian refugees are over 64 years of age, indicating a predominantly labor force presence.

Fertility rates

Gladun notes that for population stability, 100 women should give birth to 210-220 children. At the beginning of the war this figure was 116 and probably fell even lower. Economic factors and high female employment have a negative impact on fertility.

Necessary changes

Gladun calls for financial support for families until the child reaches 18 years of age and the development of social infrastructure, including kindergartens and nurseries. Flexible working hours for women can also boost fertility.

Expected figures

According to surveys, about 25% of refugees want to stay abroad. Gladun emphasizes the importance of maintaining contact with those who are undecided about returning.

Recognizing reality

The expert suggests planning the future of Ukraine taking into account the real population after the war – approximately 30 million. This requires a rethinking of economic and social infrastructure strategies.

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