Why the collapse of the Assad regime is beneficial for Ukraine and a disaster for Russia – opinion

“Regardless of whether we face the long agony of the Assad regime or its imminent collapse, Russia’s influence will decline significantly.

Now Syria is no longer an asset in Russia’s trickster-escalator policy, but is becoming a liability that must either be held on to (and invest money and other resources in stabilizing the situation) or record losses and rake off all the negative political, military and economic consequences.

We will watch with curiosity the suffering of all these assholes. Beautiful swan. Black. Fatty”.

The crisis in Syria could become a turning point in global geopolitics. The possible collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime threatens not only regional stability, but also the positions of its main patron, Russia.

Ukraine benefits from Russia's weakening in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad regime undermines the Kremlin's ability to act as a global player and increases Moscow's isolation.

Yuri Bogdanov, publicist and strategic communications expert, analyzesHow the crisis of the Bashar al-Assad regime will affect Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East. Why would losing Syria be a disaster for the Kremlin?

💬 As Yuri Bogdanov writes:
“Russia is often frightened that after the collapse of Assad, it will transfer its resources to Ukraine. However, this statement is based on myths: the Kremlin does not have the necessary resources to strengthen the Ukrainian front at the expense of the Syrian.”

What does the loss of Assad mean for Russia?

Russia has invested significant resources in support of Bashar al-Assad's regime since 2015, including military bases and financial resources. However, the fall of the regime would be catastrophic for its image as a global player.

Key losses of Russia during the collapse of Syria:

1. Image risks.

   The fall of the Assad regime will show that Russian support does not guarantee the survival of allies. This will reduce confidence in Moscow on the part of its current and potential partners, such as Venezuela and Belarus.

2. Loss of military presence.

   Russia may lose key bases – the naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim air base. This will deprive it of control over strategically important energy supply routes.

3. Reduced influence in the region.

   Without Syria, Russia will weaken its position in the Middle East, and will also lose the ability to put pressure on Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other countries.

4. Crisis in relations with allies.

   Supporting the Houthis in Yemen for the sake of maintaining their influence could aggravate Russia’s relations with Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt.

Impact on the Middle East and West

The collapse of the Assad regime will change the balance of power in the Middle East, strengthening the positions of the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. This will lead to the following changes:

• Strengthening the anti-Russian bloc.

  The weakness of Russia and its ally Iran will automatically strengthen the position of Western countries.

• Changing Iran's priorities.

  The crisis in Syria will divert Tehran's resources to internal problems and regional conflicts.

• Strengthening Ukraine.

  As Yuri Bogdanov writes:
  “The weaker Russia is in the Middle East, the stronger Ukraine is on the world stage.”

Russia and its problems: table of consequences

Why is this important for Ukraine?

Ukraine benefits from Russia's weakening in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad regime undermines the Kremlin's ability to act as a global player and increases Moscow's isolation.

💬 Quote from Yuri Bogdanov:
“Syria ceases to be an asset of Russia and becomes a liability requiring constant investments. This forces Moscow to choose between stabilizing the situation or admitting defeat.”

In addition, the weakening of Iran and Russia opens up new diplomatic opportunities for Ukraine. Without Syria, Russia loses its instrument of influence on Europe and loses leverage on world politics.

NAnews situation in Syria and its impact on Ukraine, Israel and the Middle East. As Yuri Bogdanov writes, the crisis in Syria will be a powerful blow to Russia's ambitions, creating new opportunities for its opponents.

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