- November 11, 2024
- 7:30 pm
- Video
Israel and Lebanon are negotiating a new agreement that includes guaranteeing Israel's security on its northern border. Israeli Strategic Planning Minister Ron Dermer visited Russia and the United States to discuss this topic. Russia, as a mediator, is ready to provide “security guarantees.” However, the question arises: can Russia serve as a peacemaker, given its interference in other regions?
“one question remains – a small question: will the residents of the Israeli North agree that this is an agreement (with Russian guarantees – ed.) will allow them not only to return to their homes, but to live there safely without fear that the Hamas scenario of October 7 will repeat itself”….
“There is one state in the world, the security and territorial integrity of which was guaranteed by Russia, and this state is called Ukraine”
Dmitry Dubov analyzes these contradictions on his channel.
“There is one state in the world, the security and territorial integrity of which was guaranteed by Russia, and this state is called Ukraine,” recalls Dubov. video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WW434I_QtM
Budapest Memorandum and Ukrainian experience
Ukraine at one time received security guarantees from Russia in exchange for renouncing nuclear weapons, but the results of this agreement are sad. Dmitry Dubov emphasizes that Israelis should familiarize themselves with the history of Ukraine in order to understand the risks of such guarantees.
| Event | States | Guarantees | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budapest Memorandum | Ukraine, Russia, USA, UK | Territorial integrity, independence | Violated in 2014, the war continues |
| Negotiations Israel-Lebanon-Russia | Israel, Lebanon, Russia | Security of Israel's northern borders | Predicted instability |
Is it possible to trust Russia as a mediator?
According to Dubov, Russia can act as a mediator, since it has good relations with both Iran and Lebanon. At the same time, the issue of trust remains relevant. Russia has already demonstrated a penchant for playing a double game in conflicts, which is causing concern in Israel. Dmitry Dubov emphasizes:
“Russia can act as a mediator, but trust in it is limited. Israel should remember that promises can only remain on paper, especially if they are backed by a state with a history of double standards.”
American position and Trump's perspective
The United States is reluctant to give Russia the role of mediator. After a meeting with US representatives, it became clear that Washington is interested in maintaining control in the Middle East. Donald Trump, recently elected president, is openly considering participating in the settlement.
Conclusion
Dmitry Dubov believes that Israel is in a difficult position. Russia's possible role as a security guarantor is alarming, and the analogy with the Budapest Memorandum only highlights the risks.
“Remember the Budapest Memorandum: if the Ukrainians could have foreseen events, they would have thought twice about what to give in exchange for guarantees,” Dubov concludes.
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