- September 18, 2025
- 12:09 pm
- World News
In August 2025, at the White House, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a significant peace agreement, ending a long-standing conflict. This event marked an important turning point for the South Caucasus and could change the role of the United States in regional geopolitics.
Strategic Agreement
This agreement also indirectly affects Israel. Azerbaijan is a major oil supplier to Israel, and the planned transit corridor, named the “Trump Route of Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), will only strengthen this supply. Reducing Iranian influence through Armenia aligns with Israel’s strategic interests, while deepening ties between the US and Azerbaijan will help strengthen defense alliances.
Competition for Influence
Before the signing of the Washington agreement, negotiations took place in Moscow involving China, India, and Russia. These countries seek to counter US influence by promoting alternative corridors to protect the Belt and Road Initiative, as they view TRIPP as a competitor. India, competing with China, is also not interested in US dominance on Eurasian trade routes.
History of the Conflict
During the Cold War, the South Caucasus was clearly under Moscow’s influence, with the US rarely intervening in the region’s affairs. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, new rivalries emerged. Armenia aligned with Russia and partially with Iran, while Azerbaijan oriented itself towards Turkey and the West.
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh became the center of confrontation between the two states. During the first conflict in the early 1990s, Armenian forces controlled occupied Azerbaijani territories. Mediation attempts by the OSCE Minsk Group were unsuccessful, as Washington played a secondary role compared to Moscow.
New Geopolitical Realities
After the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Russia deployed peacekeepers, and Iran used its ties with Armenia to bypass sanctions. The region remained a peripheral topic for the US until recently.
Zangezur Corridor
The dynamics of 2025 require upheaval. The foundation was laid by agreements to create the Zangezur corridor, connecting the main part of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia. The uniqueness of this deal lies in transferring the corridor under US control for 99 years with full development rights.
The TRIPP corridor is not just a logistical artery. It is a clear geostrategic move aimed at redirecting energy and trade flows away from Russia and Iran, as well as ensuring an American presence as a guarantor of peace and economic development.
Joint Initiatives
The joint statement signed in Washington includes mutual recognition of territorial integrity, peaceful coexistence, and renunciation of force. These conditions, if adhered to, could prevent future escalations.
The Role of the US and Consequences for Russia
By positioning itself as the main mediator, the US is displacing Moscow from its traditional role. Russia’s diminished influence, suffering from wars in Ukraine and global isolation, limits its maneuvering capabilities in the Caucasus region.
Interests of Iran and Europe
For Iran, the stakes are also high. Armenia has long served as an important northern partner for bypassing sanctions. The US-controlled TRIPP corridor will weaken this route, reducing Iran’s strategic options.
Reaction of the European Union
The European Union has traditionally adhered to a cautious approach, prioritizing slow confidence-building measures. In contrast, US intervention demonstrates a willingness to take risks for geopolitical gain, which may prompt the EU to catch up in infrastructure and energy projects.
Future of the Peace Agreement
The success of this peace treaty depends not only on the maneuvers of great powers but also on the internal political situation. Armenian leader Pashinyan must deal with the need to change constitutional provisions on territorial claims to Karabakh. By 2026, when elections are expected, opposition from nationalist groups could destabilize his government.
Expectations in Azerbaijan
While Ilham Aliyev achieved a significant diplomatic victory, he needs to manage internal expectations. The transfer of the corridor under US control may draw criticism from those demanding full sovereignty for Azerbaijan.
Key Factors for TRIPP’s Stability
The TRIPP corridor is intended to become a trade artery connecting the Caspian Sea with Europe, avoiding hostile transport hubs. However, its longevity depends on:
- Constitutional reforms in Armenia and the ability to maintain internal consensus.
- Maintaining trustful relations between Yerevan and Baku.
- Regional involvement of Turkey and Georgia, which play key logistical roles.
If these conditions are threatened, TRIPP could become a new point of geopolitical confrontation.
Since the end of the Cold War, the US has significantly altered the strategic landscape of the South Caucasus for the first time. The Aliyev-Pashinyan-Trump agreement of 2025 marks a shift from Russia-driven mediation to a US-led architecture of peace and trade.
Faced with TRIPP’s ambitious goals, further success will depend on local political will and Washington’s long-term commitment. One thing is clear: the South Caucasus is entering a new era where American power defines the rules of the game.