The NATO “Air Shield” theory sounds powerful, but in practice, it has significant shortcomings.

19 Russian drones invaded Polish territory, marking the largest incident of NATO airspace violation in over 75 years, reports The Economist on September 15, 2025. This development seriously tests the Alliance’s ability to protect its borders from threats posed by Russia.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described the response to the incident as “very successful.” Italian tankers and German Patriot batteries were deployed. Nevertheless, the vast majority of drones were shot down by only part of the forces represented by Polish and Dutch aircraft. Just a few days later, on September 13, Romania also reported the appearance of a Russian drone in its airspace. On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump made a statement, in which, although not heavily emphasizing the situation, he characterized the war in Ukraine as “not Trump’s war.”

The question of whether NATO can effectively protect its skies from Russian aggression remains open.

NATO Air Forces and Their Functions

The NATO air shield includes several key components. The first part is threat detection means. NATO jointly uses a fleet of 14 early warning and control aircraft based in Geilenkirchen, Germany. These aircraft can track Russian planes, drones, and missiles in the east, including Ukraine and Belarus. They are complemented by RQ-4 D Phoenix UAVs, performing long missions from high altitudes.

Some countries are experimenting with unconventional surveillance means. For example, Poland signed a contract worth about $1 billion for American radar-equipped balloons capable of identifying friendly or hostile aircraft in the skies. Additionally, there are experiments with acoustic sensors similar to those used in Ukraine to detect approaching drones.

Fighter Aviation and Its Role

The second component of the shield is the fighters deployed in Eastern Europe. Allies patrol the airspace, moving their aircraft across regions. Currently, Italy, Spain, and Hungary guard the Baltic airspace, Italy additionally protects Romania, and the Netherlands and Norway protect Poland. The recent mission in Poland was aimed at protecting nodes sending military aid to Ukraine. If necessary, as happened on September 10, aircraft can shoot down approaching threats.

After the incident with Russian drones, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dispatch of three Rafale fighters to Poland to strengthen protection.

Ground Air Defense Systems

The third component of the shield is ground air defense systems. Eastern European states have their own radar technologies and defensive structures, supplemented by Patriot batteries, which are highly effective against air threats. Germany sent Patriot batteries to Poland to monitor the latest incident with Russian drones, and the Netherlands also plans similar assistance. Additionally, U.S. destroyers equipped with long-range radars and interception systems are deployed.

Some segments of these systems are part of the unified IAMD (Integrated Air and Missile Defense) system, controlled by NATO’s Joint Air Command, mainly relying on American generals’ command. The entire airspace is managed by a pair of joint operations centers, one in Germany and the other in Spain.

Modern Challenges

Despite theoretical foundations, as noted by the publication, the system is far from perfect. The main problem lies in the deployment of many air defense systems to Ukraine, which has significantly reduced stocks on the European continent. In August, Germany, responding to pressure, agreed to send additional Patriot systems to Ukraine, which raised the question among interested parties whether the U.S. would provide replacements for the existing systems.

Small drones, which Russia launches at Ukrainian targets, often prove difficult to detect by radar systems. There have been incidents where debris landed in several countries, including Romania and Latvia. In one case, a group in Poland took months to retrieve a downed cruise missile found by a woman riding a horse.

Poland calls drones crossing its borders “unarmed decoys,” demonstrating a certain approach to defense issues.

Political Will and NATO Action Compatibility

In addition to technical problems, there is the issue of political will in maintaining an adequate level of protection. Since NATO relies on U.S. military support, a shift in focus by American forces to other regions affects the readiness to deploy air defense systems on the continent.

NATO countries have a significant number of combat aircraft guarding the Alliance’s eastern front. However, the effectiveness of managing these operations largely depends on the participation and experience of the United States. In the face of growing threats, NATO may face a dilemma of whether to change current rules for active defense against external aggressors.

The development of the situation needs monitoring. For example, Warsaw requested consultations with allies under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty after the drone invasion. Meanwhile, the activation of Article 5, which provides for collective defense, remains in question. The real consequences of what is happening will depend on the operational and consensual response of the Alliance to emerging threats.