Putin’s “butterfly” caused global changes, disrupting the familiar world order.

Three and a half years of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have revealed deep problems in the world order. Russia’s aggression, intended as a quick victory, turned into a large-scale crisis. This is not just a war, but a reflection of accumulated global contradictions that have long remained unresolved.

Putin, in pursuit of imperial ambitions, did not consider all the consequences. His actions awakened forces that changed the familiar balance of the world system.

These events have become a catalyst for rethinking the role of major states and their influence on global stability.

World Order and Its Mechanisms

The classical theory of international relations, particularly realism, explains instability by the aggressive nature of states. Conflicts are inevitable, and the question is only when they will arise and how to minimize them.

Power in international relations is a combination of political will and resources. Global stability is achieved when the forces acting on the world order are balanced. However, imbalance leads to transformations, and this is what determines the direction of changes.

The example of Finland and Afghanistan shows that significant political will is needed to counter an aggressor with large resources. This is the formula for victory in an asymmetric war.

Problems and Challenges

Global institutions are weakened, and the imbalance in wealth distribution is growing. Competition between states is intensifying, but strategic tasks remain unresolved. This creates a ground for new conflicts and instability.

Technologies and Leadership: Illusions and Reality

Claims of world leadership in technology often lack a real goal. The Soviet Union was the first in space, but this did not save it from collapse. Russia, possessing a nuclear arsenal, has not improved the welfare of its citizens. UN reforms remain at the level of statements, and the International Criminal Court faces different interpretations of crimes.

The use of force in international relations is becoming the norm, which is alarming.

New Strategies and Challenges

Trump, in his policy, sought US leadership, but his ideas were belated. The UN Security Council could perform its functions if not for changes in its composition. Russia and China have their plans and do not await US leadership. Europe, despite its potential, remains a regional project. While Russia and China develop strategies of public influence using AI, Europe faces internal problems and indecision.

Conflicts between countries continue, and no one knows what will cause the next major crisis. The world stands on the brink of new challenges, and their resolution requires rethinking global strategies.