Negotiations Without Breakthrough: Abu Dhabi, Nuclear Agreements, and Dangerous Illusions

The latest round of trilateral consultations between Ukraine, USA, and Russia once again confirmed: there has been no political shift. The formula remains the same — “agreed to continue dialogue.” Against this backdrop, the only tangible result was the exchange and return of some Ukrainian defenders home. No other signals — neither on security nor on ending the war — are visible yet.

Abu Dhabi as a diplomatic pause

The negotiations took place in Abu Dhabi — a neutral point where the parties prefer to speak without cameras and loud statements. But behind the external silence, there was another plot directly related to global security.

What was discussed besides Ukraine

According to Axios, participants touched on the topic of extending the provisions of the New START treaty on the control of strategic nuclear arsenals of the USA and Russia. Formally, the document expired on Thursday, but the parties approached an informal understanding.

According to an American official, there will be no legal extension. Instead, there is a promise to “act in good faith” and begin consultations on a possible renewal of the agreement. The formula is soft, the commitments vague.

The White House and the idea of a “new treaty”

The US President Donald Trump publicly stated his position: extending the old treaty is not considered the optimal option. According to him, it is more logical to entrust experts with the development of a “new, improved, and modernized agreement” designed for many years.

This approach reflects Washington’s key skepticism.

The China factor

The New START does not cover China, whose nuclear arsenal is still smaller than that of the US and Russia but is growing rapidly. The White House considers this a systemic problem.

Beijing, in turn, does not show interest in participating in agreements that would limit its nuclear program. There are indeed few incentives for China to do so — and even American analysts acknowledge this.

The key weakness of the current logic

It is difficult to argue with the need to consider the Chinese factor. Much more questions arise from another assumption — the reliance on Moscow’s “good faith.”

The US administration assumes that the Kremlin will adhere to agreements. Trump directly states that Putin “keeps his word,” — and this is said against the backdrop of ongoing massive ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Such a discrepancy between statements and reality is dangerous. Belief in the promises of a state that systematically violates its own commitments creates direct risks for global security.

Why this is important for Israel and the region

This is where the context goes beyond bilateral agreements. Control over nuclear arsenals, trust in deterrence regimes, and errors in assessing the intentions of authoritarian regimes directly affect the security of the Middle East.

It is no coincidence that NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency has repeatedly emphasized: any illusions about the “responsible behavior” of aggressive states ultimately turn into crises — from Eastern Europe to the Middle East.

Conclusion without illusions

Abu Dhabi did not become a place of breakthrough. Ukraine received its defenders home — an important but local result. Everything else remains in the zone of uncertainty.

The main risk of today’s diplomacy is not the absence of new agreements, but the willingness to build a strategy on trusting those who repeatedly prove that words mean nothing to them.