Iran is increasing its missile stockpiles, but Israel has two key strategies for the next war.

Since June, on the Iranian real estate listing website, apartment owners have started indicating that their housing is far from military bases. Near such sites as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, housing prices are rapidly falling due to fears of Israeli strikes.

In Tehran, the water supply is turned off for six hours a day, but the scaffolds operate around the clock. Since the beginning of 2025, the Iranian regime has executed 1,500 civilians. It is no secret that the number of Mossad agents is not even a fraction of these numbers. The ayatollahs use mass executions to instill fear in the population.

The key task of the war in June, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, can be defined as eliminating not only the existing threat of the nuclear program but also the new challenge of thousands of ballistic missiles. These missiles are not only a shield against Israeli attacks but also a sword.

Iranians have absorbed this message. They have postponed the resumption of the nuclear program, fearing a response from President Trump. Most efforts are now directed at restoring their missile program.

Clearing the debris from underground launch and storage bases proves to be a challenging task. During the war, the Israeli army blocked them to prevent massive launches, but now bulldozers are clearing the space. Iran’s attempts to replenish stocks face difficulties as production sites were destroyed, yet at the end of each day, Iranians still receive more missiles than they had that morning.

Despite this, Israel has many options. In Operation “Rising Lion,” the Israeli army refrained — at the government’s direction — from two strategically important steps: eliminating the Iranian leadership and destroying the country’s economy. These actions are still possible and are intended to deter Iran from further military adventurism. According to available data in Israel, Iran does not seek to start a new war but fears a response from Israel — and the gap between fear and miscalculation is small. In Jerusalem, they continue to hope for an internal uprising that will end the current situation and lead to the complete cessation of all forms of support for Hezbollah and Hamas.

With the start of the war, the Iranian public’s distrust of the authorities has only increased, although fear remains the dominant emotion. Somewhere, centrifuges continue to spin, and public fear gradually turns into anger, which can become a catalyst for regime change.