The Kremlin “leaked” Putin’s plans for Ukraine – what is actually intended and why it is important to Israel – ISW analysis

September 2025 turned out to be notably noisy: Western media received a “picture of intentions” from Moscow regarding Ukraine. Coincidence?

The source of the publication was Bloomberg on September 20, 2025, but analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW, USA) are confident: this is not a coincidence. The Kremlin deliberately leaked the information to achieve a psychological and political effect.

Unlikely. Such a “leak” is not about military secrets but about managing perception. The Kremlin is testing Kyiv’s nervous system and the resilience of its allies, suggesting that escalation is the only path to negotiations on Russian terms.

Should we believe every word? No. But ignoring the purpose of the leak is also a mistake. It is a psychological lever activated on the eve of winter.

What exactly was “leaked”: escalation as a negotiation lever and the “winter card”

The essence is simple and cynical: hit critical infrastructure, exhaust the energy sector, pressure cities during the cold period. The external message is “we are ready to increase the pace,” the internal message is “we control the narrative.” The war of attrition is repackaged as “inevitability” — the West will tire, and Kyiv will be left alone with the cold and dark neighborhoods.
Familiar tune? Yes. But no less dangerous for that.

What narratives the Kremlin is trying to establish through the media

• “Negotiations are only possible on our terms.”
• “The West will split — it’s a matter of time.”
• “Winter is our ally, infrastructure is vulnerable.”
• “We are determined, Ukraine is exhausted.”

These theses are not so much about the front as they are about the minds — of voters, parliamentarians, coalition partners.

What Moscow wants from the West and Ukraine: playing on fatigue and disagreements

The main bet is not to break Kyiv’s defense in one fell swoop but to sow doubt: is it worth continuing to pay for Europe’s security? If the chorus of skeptics grows louder in Brussels and Washington, the financial-military support for Ukraine will slow down. Then a “compromise” on the Kremlin’s terms will seem closer.

How the leak works as a psychological weapon: three audiences — three reactions

1. Ukrainians. Sow fear before winter: “we can’t endure any longer.”
2. Europeans. Push towards “realism”: “let’s at least freeze it.”
3. Americans. Frame the war as “foreign expenses”: “not our problem.”

The mechanics are simple: a speech for each — their own, but the goal is common — diverse fatigue.

Where the strategy cracks: systemic weaknesses of the Russian machine

• Losses and motivation of personnel — a topic that cannot be completely hidden.
• Logistics and corruption reduce the effectiveness of “grand plans.”
• Industrial inertia and sanctions limit the pace of rearmament.

Therefore, they have to increase the “informational stuffing” — when there is no decisive victory on the battlefield, they try to play it out in the media space.

How Ukraine neutralizes informational-energy blackmail: from air defense to trust in the authorities

Strengthening air defense is no longer just about technology but a social security contour. Every saved substation saves megawatts and the nerves of millions. But a single “iron” cannot win the war in minds. Transparent blackout plans, hotlines, local heating points, direct communication — without panic and without “syrup” — are important.

What to do within the country: resilience, volunteer networks, and energy saving without hysteria

• Stable schedules and clear action algorithms for households and businesses.
• Mutual aid networks at the level of HOAs, communities, religious communities, veteran initiatives.
• Microeconomics of resilience: energy-efficient solutions, backup sources, neighbor cooperation.

Ukraine has already lived through two winter seasons in a state of “energy turbulence” — and this experience is converted into competencies.

What external steps are critical: coalitions, sanctions, drone technologies

• Air defense/missile defense coalitions and joint UAV production lines.
• Sanction pressure on components and logistics of the Russian military-industrial complex.
• Law and communication: documenting strikes, working with the media without hysteria, but also without silence.

Deterring the Kremlin is not only about “hardware,” it’s about predictability and unity.

Why this story is important for Israel: lessons of resilience and security in practice

Israel knows the price of a “war of attrition”: pressure on infrastructure, rocket attacks, hybrid operations, and attempts to sway public opinion. The Ukrainian experience is a living “catalog of solutions,” from distributed energy to crisis communication. And also — the human connection: hundreds of thousands of families with Ukrainian roots follow this war with their hearts.

What conclusions the Israeli expert community is already drawing: cyber, air defense, communications

1. Cyber protection of infrastructure: energy and communication are strategic targets №1 in hybrid warfare.
2. Layers of air defense: a combination of systems of different ranges and mobility provides a continuous dome.
3. Direct language of authority: regular short briefings, maps, chatbots, SMS notifications — this is not “PR,” but an element of defense.

How diasporas connect the two countries: the human factor and public opinion

Communities are not an abstraction. They are donors, volunteers, experts, and bridges between capitals. When the news reports “another attack on a CHP,” in the language of the diaspora, it sounds like “who needs help today, who to go to with a generator?” And this is how long-term political will is formed.

What this leak means for the world: the struggle for rules and consequences for democracy

The plot is broader than Ukraine-Russia. The basic question: is it permissible to rewrite borders by force and impose the “right of the strong” on neighbors? Any concession dictated by fear of another winter campaign will become a precedent. It is important for democracies to maintain the framework: security costs money, but its absence costs more.

What the upcoming winter 2025/2026 might look like: scenarios and crossroads

• Severe energy pressure from the Russian Federation: attacks on generation and distribution nodes.
• Ukraine’s response: strengthening air defense, distributed generation, targeted strikes on enemy military logistics.
• Western support: will remain, although debates about its scale are inevitable.

The key parameter is not only the number of missiles and drones but the manageability of stress in societies.

What NAnews readers should watch in the coming weeks: a brief checklist

• The frequency and effectiveness of strikes on energy — on both sides of the front.
• News about air defense/missile defense and ammunition supplies — who, when, in what volumes.
• Rhetoric in the USA and EU on aid budgets — what is included in the final documents.
• Initiatives for distributed energy in Ukrainian cities — how quickly they scale up.

Conclusions and position of NAnews: resilience against fear, facts against propaganda

“The leak of plans” is not about an all-knowing adversary, but about calculating our reaction. The Kremlin invests in fear. Ukraine — in resilience. The West — in predictability. Israel — in extractable lessons. In this construction, the winner is the one who keeps their nerve and does not allow the imposed narrative to become reality.

And if asked directly: “Who will tire first?” — the answer depends on the manageability of doubts. Not on the temperature outside, but on the temperature within communities.