The new president of Lebanon and a lesson for Ukraine: what do the tactics of Putin and Iran have in common?

In January 2025, more than two years of political crisis ended in Lebanon – the country elected a president for the first time in a long time. He became the commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army, General Joseph Aoun.

This event was accompanied by massive celebrations in a country that is experiencing a deep socio-political crisis, aggravated by the influence of external players such as Iran.

Ukrainian publicist Vitaly Portnikov in his analytical article for Radio Liberty, he drew parallels between the situation in Lebanon and Putin’s tactics towards Ukraine.

The election of General Joseph Aoun as Lebanese President in January 2025 was the result of an important turn in regional politics, in which Israel played a key role. For decades, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has used Lebanon as a base to attack Israel and destabilize the region. However, after the fighting in 2023-2024, when Israel successfully suppressed the second front opened by Hezbollah, its influence began to wane.

This Israeli victory over Hezbollah weakened the position of Iran and its proxy forces in Lebanon, which ultimately allowed the election of a president capable of working to strengthen statehood.

Why was Lebanon left without a president?

1. Political deadlock.

   The Lebanese political system is based on denominational balance, with major positions distributed among religious communities. However, due to the influence of Iran and Hezbollah, a compromise on electing a president could not be reached for more than two years.

2. Control of Iran through Hezbollah.

   The organization deliberately blocked political processes in order to maintain chaos that benefited Tehran.

3. Israeli strikes.

   After the October events of 2023, when Israel repelled a Hamas attack and then suppressed Hezbollah’s activity in Lebanon, the position of pro-Iranian forces was significantly weakened.

Israel was not only able to defend its territories from attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, but also caused serious damage to Hezbollah's infrastructure in Lebanon. This led to:

• Weakening Iran's influence in the region.
• Deterioration of Hezbollah's logistics capabilities.
• A decrease in its authority among the Lebanese population.

These events forced Hezbollah to concede the issue of electing a president, which was made possible thanks to international pressure, in which Israel played a key role.

Lebanon: a country under the control of external forces

Lebanon has long been considered the “Switzerland of the Middle East” due to its developed banking system and thriving tourism. However, the intervention of Syria and Iran has turned it into an arena for regional conflicts.

The organization plays a special role in this destabilization Hezbollahsupported by Iran. Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah opened a second front using Lebanon as a springboard. The Lebanese Army under the leadership of Joseph Aoun was unable to resist these actions due to limited resources.

The election of Joseph Aoun: a new course for Lebanon?

The election of Joseph Aoun was accompanied by hopes for the restoration of statehood. In his first speech, the new president announced his intention to strengthen the state's monopoly on the use of force, which worries Iran and Hezbollah.

It is symbolic that the elections took place against the backdrop of a weakening “axis of resistance”—an alliance of forces directed against the United States and Israel. Lebanese journalists call these elections “on the ruins” of this axis.

Parallels between Lebanon and Ukraine

Vitaly Portnikov in his analysis, he emphasizes that the situation in Lebanon allows us to better understand Putin’s tactics towards Ukraine. The Kremlin seeks to undermine the legitimacy of Ukrainian statehood by repeating rhetoric about a “failed state” and “illegitimate presidents.”

The main elements of the Kremlin's tactics:

1. Undermining legitimacy. Putin has been arguing since 2014 that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate, calling the events of 2014 a “coup d’etat.”
2. Influence through internal conflicts. The use of agents of influence in the political elite and society.
3. Creating chaos. The Kremlin promotes narratives about the weakness of Ukrainian institutions, trying to portray the country as a “failed state.”

Lebanese lesson for Ukraine

Vitaly Portnikov emphasizes that Lebanon has become an example of how external forces can use internal weaknesses to undermine the state. Without strong institutions and a monopoly on force, the country becomes a plaything in the hands of foreign players.

For Ukraine, this example is important to avoid similar scenarios:

• Strengthening government institutions.
• Fight against corruption.
• Creation of a sustainable security system.

Table: Comparison of calls in Lebanon and Ukraine

Israel's role in regional stability

Israel, as Lebanon's closest neighbor, is inevitably involved in developments in the region. Combating the influence of Iran and its proxy groups such as Hezbollah remains an important element of Israeli policy.

Our website NAnews – Israel News regularly covers key events in the Middle East, helping readers understand how they impact Israeli security and global politics.

Conclusion

The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon is a step towards restoring the statehood of a country that has long been under the influence of external players. However, this process is fraught with great challenges.

For Ukraine, the situation in Lebanon becomes a clear example of why strong state institutions and independent politics are so important. Strengthening sovereignty is the main lesson to be learned from Lebanon's history.

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