Allies must worry about how best to arm Ukraine to ensure a stable peace.
Writing in Foreign Affairs, Samuel Charap, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, notes that Ukraine's entry into NATO requires the approval of 32 member countries and the process depends on the implementation of reforms unrelated to the resolution of the war. There are other effective ways to ensure Ukraine's security, such as similar commitments that the United States has made with other allies after wars.
EU membership can also guarantee Ukraine's security, as it provides for mutual assistance in the event of armed aggression.
The analyst notes that it is important to think about how to properly arm Ukraine in order to achieve sustainable peace. It is necessary to ensure that aggression by Russia or other states imposes ongoing costs to deter them from invading. Sanctions and export controls by the West could be maintained for a long time until Russia withdraws completely from Ukraine.
In November, The New York Times reported that Ukrainian authorities were prioritizing security guarantees over the return of occupied territories. The Polish publication Rzeczpospolita wrote in December about three ways to ensure security in the context of negotiations to end the war.
The statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine that Ukraine is ruling out alternatives to joining NATO may be due to the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum.
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