FDD: Lebanon ceasefire negotiations: “beware of trusting Russia to contain Hezbollah – Putin has already flagrantly violated a similar agreement with Trump”

In 2017, the presidents of Russia and the United States – Putin and Trump – “agreed”» on containing Hezbollah. One of the key goals of this agreement was to contain Iranian forces, including Hezbollah, and prevent their expansion towards the Israeli border.

The idea looked promising: Russia, as an ally of Bashar al-Assad, would use its influence to prevent Iranian proxies from entering the region.

However Instead of fulfilling his obligations, Putin actually “relied” on his promises to Trumpallowing Hezbollah to strengthen its military presence and infrastructure in southern Syria.

As a result, the Kremlin grossly violated the agreement, jeopardizing the security of Israel and Jordan.

History repeats itself: can Moscow be trusted to contain threats?

The recent visit of Benjamin Netanyahu's attorney to Moscow suggests possible Russian “guarantees” regarding the ceasefire in Lebanon. The essence of the negotiations is that Russia, using its influence in Syria, should supposedly help Israel “contain the smuggling of weapons” sent to Hezbollah and put pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to prevent the passage of Iranian weapons through Syrian territory.

However, despite official statements and the possibility of “diplomatic assistance” from Moscow, serious doubts remain about whether Is Russia really capable or interested in fulfilling such obligations?.

Since intervening in the Syrian conflict in 2015, Russia has built close relations with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah. These ties are driven by both military and economic interests: Moscow supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which ensures the Russian presence in the region.

The Syrian-Lebanese border has become an area where Hezbollah is actively operating under the auspices of Iran. It is a key area for the smuggling of weapons and drugs, including Captagon, a drug that has become a major source of funding for the Assad regime.

2017 agreement: high expectations and high-profile failures

In 2017, USA (Trump), Russia (Putin) and Jordan reached an agreement a ceasefire in southern Syria. It came into force on July 9 and its purpose was to:

• Reducing tensions between pro-Assad forces and rebels.
• Containing Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, from advancing to the Golan Heights.
• Providing stability for the security of Israel and Jordan.

However Russia failed to fulfill its obligations. According to American Foundation for Defense of Democracies FDD:

• Hezbollah has strengthened its positions in the Golan Heights, the Syrian-Jordanian border and near Israel.
• Smuggling of weapons and drugs through Jordan increased by 70% in the first two years after the agreement.

“Russia has done little to curb the actions of Assad and his allies, which has created additional threats to Israel and Jordan.”– reports FDD.

The American Foundation for Defense of Democracies points out:

“The agreement was used by the Kremlin as a screen, under the cover of which Hezbollah strengthened its presence in key areas.”.

Consequences of the agreement for the security of the region

Russia's failure to contain Hezbollah has led to the following results:

• Strengthening Iranian military infrastructure in southern Syria.
• Increase in the number of rocket attacks from Syrian territory.
• Deterioration of Israeli security, which required more active action by the IDF.

Israel has repeatedly expressed concern. In 2020, the number of attacks on Iranian targets in Syria reached 50 per yearwhich was a direct response to the violation of agreements.

Table: results of the 2017 agreement

How did this affect Jordan?

For Jordan, the failure of the agreement led to catastrophic consequences:

• Increased smuggling of weapons and drugs. Smuggling of Captagon produced in Syria has increased by 70%which created a serious threat to the security and economy of Jordan.
• Instability at the border. The gathering of Iranian proxy groups has increased the risks of attacks and border violations.

The Jordanian leadership has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Russia, but the Kremlin continued to turn a blind eye to the actions of its allies.

Why did the agreement fail?

Despite public statements, Russia had its own interests that contradicted the agreements reached:

1. Strategic partnership with Iran.

   Russia works closely with Iran, which provides Moscow with weapons, including for the war in Ukraine.

2. Financial interests.

   The Kremlin turned a blind eye to drug trafficking across the Syrian-Jordanian border, since the proceeds from Captagon smuggling supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

3. Geopolitical game.

   Russia sought to strengthen its influence in the Middle East, while simultaneously weakening the US position in the region.

Conclusion: what does history teach?

The events of 2017 clearly show that trust in Russia to contain Hezbollah is not justified. This is relevant for both Israel and Ukraine, given the Kremlin’s close ties with Iran.

“Where war once benefited Russia, peace will now benefit it even more,” says an Israeli intelligence source.

Why is Russia interested in playing the role of mediator?

Now the Kremlin is trying to use the settlement in Lebanon to improve its international position. This is due to:

1. The desire to soften the isolation after the invasion of Ukraine.
2. Strengthening ties with Iran and Assad.
3. Creating a counterweight to the United States in the Middle East.

According to FDD analysts, participation in the negotiations allows Moscow to look like a “key player” capable of influencing stability in the region. However past experience shows that such obligations remain on paper.

Lessons from 2017: should the Kremlin be trusted?

The history of 2017 teaches: Russia is ready to sacrifice its obligations for the sake of its own interests. This is especially important to remember for Israel, which is counting on security in the current negotiations.

“The Kremlin has already shown that its commitments are just words. Russia cannot be a reliable guarantor of security,” said Ukrainian Ambassador Yevgeny Korniychuk.

To keep abreast of events and analytics, read NAnews — Israel News.

Leave a comment in Telegram – NAnews channel↓