- October 22, 2024
- 7:44 pm
- Ukraine
The population fell by 10 million, due to the departure of refugees, a drop in the birth rate and deaths as a result of the war. This is more than the population of all of Israel.
According to the UN, quotes Reuters, Since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million people—about a quarter of the country's entire population. The main reasons were:
- Outflow of refugees moving abroad.
- A sharp decline in the birth rate.
- Military losses.
Florence Bauer, head of the Eastern European office of the UN Population Fund, at a press conference in Geneva on October 22, 2024, noted that the demographic situation in Ukraine was difficult even before the start of the conflict, but with the outbreak of the war the situation worsened sharply.
Fertility decline
One of the most alarming indicators is the declining birth rate. In 2022, it fell to one child per woman, one of the lowest rates in the world. For stable population reproduction, a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman is required.
Quote from Reuters:
“The birth rate has fallen sharply and is now around one child per woman, one of the lowest rates in the world,” says Bauer.
Historical perspective
Ukraine, which had a population of more than 50 million since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, has steadily lost population since then, as have many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By 2021, before the Russian invasion, the country's population had dropped to 40 million.
Main factors of population decline:
- Refugee outflow. The most significant factor is 6.7 million Ukrainianswho left the country, especially to Europe. There are currently 12-13 thousand Ukrainian citizens in Israel who arrived in the country after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, said the Ambassador of Ukraine to Israel Yevgeny Korniychuk.
- Military losses. According to the UN, the exact number of victims is difficult to calculate, but we are talking about tens of thousands of dead.
- Aging population. Many villages and small towns were practically deserted. Only elderly people remained in them.
- Impossibility of creating families. Because of the war, many young people are postponing starting families.
Impact on regions
The regions that were most affected by depopulation were those in close proximity to combat zones. Villages and small towns have become places where only elderly people remain and young couples are unable to start families.
Quote from Reuters:
“The immediate impact of the conflict is in regions that are almost completely depopulated, with only old people left in villages and couples unable to have children,” Bauer said.
War and refugees: main reasons
The most significant part of Ukraine's population decline is due to the huge number of refugees – 6.7 million people who now live outside the country, mostly in Europe. Another significant factor is military losses, which are difficult to accurately calculate. The UN indicates that the number of victims could be in the tens of thousands.
Census Prospects
Bauer said the exact impact of the war on population numbers can only be assessed once the conflict is over and a full census has been conducted. She stressed that until then a definitive assessment would be difficult.
Table: Main reasons for the population decline in Ukraine
| Factor | Description | Approximate number of victims |
|---|---|---|
| Refugee outflow | People forced to go abroad due to war | 6.7 million |
| Declining birth rate | Dropped to one child per woman, one of the lowest levels | Not specified |
| Military losses | Military and civilian casualties | Tens of thousands |
| Deserted regions | Only elderly people remain in villages and small towns | Not specified |
Conclusion
Ukraine continues to suffer from the consequences of the war with Russia, not only on the military but also on the demographic front. Population outflow, catastrophically low birth rates and losses at the front create a difficult situation that will require many years to recover. Accurate data on demographic losses will only be available after the end of the war.
Quote from Reuters:
“Accurate data on the consequences of the war on the population of Ukraine can only be obtained after a census is conducted at the end of the conflict,” said Florence Bauer.
Thus, the Ukrainian people are facing a demographic crisis that has deep and long-term consequences for the country.
